Recomputed every run from the latest available close (as of 2026-09-02 — latest trailing 30-day window; re-anchors each day you run it). This is the strategy's current recommended Top 15 for today; names can change day to day as prices update. The locked official allocation below is the monthly tradable book and stays fixed until next lock.
| # | Ticker | ETF Name | Class | M1 | M2 | M2/M1 (>1.00) | Score | Weight | Trail DD | Stop | 12M Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOAU | U.S. Global GO GOLD and Precious Met… | COMMODITY | +18.95% | +37.36% | 1.97 ✓ | 5.8% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 2 | RING | iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF | COMMODITY | +14.88% | +34.56% | 2.32 ✓ | 4.8% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 3 | GOEX | Global X Gold Explorers ETF | COMMODITY | +15.76% | +34.10% | 2.16 ✓ | 4.8% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 4 | GDX | VanEck Gold Miners ETF | COMMODITY | +13.77% | +33.37% | 2.42 ✓ | 4.5% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 5 | SIL | Global X Silver Miners ETF | COMMODITY | +14.25% | +32.45% | 2.28 ✓ | 4.4% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 6 | GDXJ | VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF | COMMODITY | +13.16% | +32.41% | 2.46 ✓ | 4.3% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 7 | SILJ | Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF | COMMODITY | +11.02% | +29.90% | 2.71 ✓ | 3.7% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 8 | KURE | KraneShares MSCI All China Health Ca… | ETF | +7.40% | +12.64% | 1.71 ✓ | 22.2% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 9 | XLE | State Street Energy Select Sector SP… | COMMODITY | +9.50% | +10.28% | 1.08 ✓ | 1.6% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 10 | FENY | Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF | COMMODITY | +8.60% | +9.84% | 1.14 ✓ | 1.6% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 11 | VDE | Vanguard Energy Index Fund ETF Shares | COMMODITY | +8.50% | +9.80% | 1.15 ✓ | 1.6% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 12 | UNG | United States Natural Gas Fund, LP | COMMODITY | +1.03% | +11.96% | 11.61 ✓ | 1.5% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 13 | XOP | State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Expl… | COMMODITY | +6.96% | +8.90% | 1.28 ✓ | 1.5% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 14 | MOO | VanEck Agribusiness ETF | ETF | +5.07% | +9.84% | 1.94 ✓ | 19.0% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 15 | HAP | VanEck Natural Resources ETF | ETF | +6.32% | +9.00% | 1.42 ✓ | 18.8% | +0.0% | ✓ OK |
HELD = in both today & official | ▲ NEW = in today's recommended list, not in official | ▼ WOULD DROP = in official but not in today's top 15.
| Ticker | Status | Official Wt | Would-Be Wt | Δ Weight | Official # | Would-Be # |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOAU | HELD | 6.7% | 5.8% | -0.9% | 1 | 1 |
| RING | HELD | 6.1% | 4.8% | -1.3% | 2 | 2 |
| GDX | HELD | 5.5% | 4.5% | -1.0% | 3 | 4 |
| GOEX | HELD | 5.5% | 4.8% | -0.7% | 4 | 3 |
| GDXJ | HELD | 4.9% | 4.3% | -0.6% | 5 | 6 |
| SIL | HELD | 4.5% | 4.4% | -0.1% | 6 | 5 |
| SILJ | HELD | 3.6% | 3.7% | +0.1% | 7 | 7 |
| ETHA | ▼ WOULD DROP | 13.3% | — | -13.3% | 8 | — |
| IHI | ▼ WOULD DROP | 10.3% | — | -10.3% | 9 | — |
| KURE | HELD | 9.5% | 22.2% | +12.7% | 10 | 8 |
| EZA | ▼ WOULD DROP | 9.1% | — | -9.1% | 11 | — |
| VDE | HELD | 1.7% | 1.6% | -0.1% | 12 | 11 |
| FXZ | ▼ WOULD DROP | 8.9% | — | -8.9% | 13 | — |
| GNR | ▼ WOULD DROP | 8.9% | — | -8.9% | 14 | — |
| XOP | HELD | 1.6% | 1.5% | -0.1% | 15 | 13 |
| XLE | ▲ NEW | — | 1.6% | +1.6% | — | 9 |
| FENY | ▲ NEW | — | 1.6% | +1.6% | — | 10 |
| UNG | ▲ NEW | — | 1.5% | +1.5% | — | 12 |
| MOO | ▲ NEW | — | 19.0% | +19.0% | — | 14 |
| HAP | ▲ NEW | — | 18.8% | +18.8% | — | 15 |
Set from the 2026-08-31 close (anchored to the latest trailing 30-day bar) — the same signal timing the backtest uses. Locked 2026-09-01; reruns within the same period never change this allocation. Top 15 by composite momentum score (M1 + 2×M2), after eliminating decelerating names (M2 > 0) and stale accelerations (M2/M1 > 1.00) — the same filters used in the backtest. Score-weighted with per-position and class caps.
Class allocation: COMMODITY: 40.1% | CRYPTO: 13.3% | ETF: 46.7%
| # | Ticker | ETF Name | Class | M1 | M2 | M2/M1 (>1.00) | Score | Weight | Trail DD | Stop | 12M Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOAU | U.S. Global GO GOLD and Precious Met… | COMMODITY | +17.17% | +37.84% | 2.20 ✓ | 6.7% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 2 | RING | iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF | COMMODITY | +14.61% | +36.55% | 2.50 ✓ | 6.1% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 3 | GDX | VanEck Gold Miners ETF | COMMODITY | +13.09% | +34.75% | 2.65 ✓ | 5.5% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 4 | GOEX | Global X Gold Explorers ETF | COMMODITY | +13.84% | +34.24% | 2.47 ✓ | 5.5% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 5 | GDXJ | VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF | COMMODITY | +10.88% | +32.81% | 3.02 ✓ | 4.9% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 6 | SIL | Global X Silver Miners ETF | COMMODITY | +10.47% | +30.87% | 2.95 ✓ | 4.5% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 7 | SILJ | Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF | COMMODITY | +6.45% | +27.75% | 4.30 ✓ | 3.6% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 8 | ETHA | iShares Ethereum Trust | CRYPTO | +7.46% | +17.44% | 2.34 ✓ | 13.3% | +nan% | ✓ OK | ||
| 9 | IHI | iShares U.S. Medical Devices ETF | ETF | +8.85% | +10.22% | 1.15 ✓ | 10.3% | +nan% | ✓ OK | ||
| 10 | KURE | KraneShares MSCI All China Health Ca… | ETF | +5.76% | +9.92% | 1.72 ✓ | 9.5% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 11 | EZA | iShares MSCI South Africa ETF | ETF | +3.37% | +9.83% | 2.92 ✓ | 9.1% | +nan% | ✓ OK | ||
| 12 | VDE | Vanguard Energy Index Fund ETF Shares | COMMODITY | +7.55% | +7.60% | 1.01 ✓ | 1.7% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 13 | FXZ | First Trust Materials AlphaDEX Fund | ETF | +7.05% | +7.46% | 1.06 ✓ | 8.9% | +nan% | ✓ OK | ||
| 14 | GNR | State Street SPDR S&P Global Natural… | ETF | +5.26% | +8.34% | 1.59 ✓ | 8.9% | +nan% | ✓ OK | ||
| 15 | XOP | State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Expl… | COMMODITY | +6.96% | +7.14% | 1.03 ✓ | 1.6% | +0.0% | ✓ OK |
Primary benchmark: QQQ (Invesco Nasdaq-100 ETF). This is what most investors compare against.
| Metric | Strategy | QQQ | EW NDX-100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Return | +11.3% | +75.8% | +0.0% |
| Ann. Return | +2.3% | +12.6% | +0.0% |
| Ann. Volatility | 21.4% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.11 | 0.63 | 0.00 |
| Calmar Ratio | 0.05 | 0.49 | 0.00 |
| Max Drawdown | -47.7% | -25.8% | +0.0% |
| Win Rate | 56.1% | 63.2% | 0.0% |
| Best Month | +16.5% | +16.5% | +0.0% |
| Worst Month | -14.1% | -14.6% | +0.0% |
| Months | 57 | 57 | 0 |
Parameters optimised on rolling 24-month training windows, tested on unseen 6-month windows.
Out-of-sample on unseen data — avoids look-ahead bias.
| Ann. Return | +29.8% |
| Sharpe | 1.41 |
| Max DD | -16.4% |
| Win Rate | 63% |
| Universe | 0 NDX + 0 S&P500 stocks + 536 ETFs |
| M1 Lookback | 4 months |
| M2 Lag | 1 month(s) |
| Holdings | Top 15 |
| Sizing | Score-weighted (softmax) |
| Position Cap | 30% max per ticker |
| ETF Cap | 80% total ETFs |
| Commodity Cap | 30% total commodities |
| Crypto Cap | 20% total crypto |
| Trailing Stop | 25% from peak |
| Benchmark | QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) |
| Fold | Train End | Test End | Best M1 | Best M2 | Best N | OOS Sharpe | OOS Ann Ret | OOS MaxDD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 2023-11 | 2024-05 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2.32 | +69.5% | -4.0% |
| #2 | 2024-05 | 2024-11 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0.50 | +6.0% | -3.8% |
| #3 | 2024-11 | 2025-05 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -0.71 | -15.3% | -16.4% |
| #4 | 2025-05 | 2025-11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 7.93 | +123.4% | +0.0% |
| #5 | 2025-11 | 2026-05 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0.67 | +8.5% | -6.0% |
Trailing 12-month return each month — smooths single-month noise and shows whether alpha is growing or compressing.
Each cell = strategy return for that month. Green = positive, red = negative. Full-year column on right.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Full Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | -1.2% | +4.0% | +13.5% | -4.2% | +0.0% | -4.8% | -8.3% | -6.1% | -14.1% | +4.9% | +1.4% | +0.5% | -15.9% |
| 2023 | +9.1% | -2.9% | -7.8% | +4.8% | +0.1% | +1.5% | +3.8% | -5.0% | +3.2% | -12.9% | +2.0% | +6.1% | -0.3% |
| 2024 | -7.1% | +4.1% | -2.0% | +6.6% | +3.7% | -2.7% | -4.3% | -8.0% | +1.3% | +2.8% | -3.8% | -1.2% | -11.1% |
| 2025 | -5.6% | -3.8% | +0.7% | -10.6% | +1.2% | +6.6% | +8.6% | +1.3% | +13.9% | +3.5% | -3.4% | +1.2% | +11.9% |
| 2026 | -1.6% | +8.6% | +0.2% | -1.1% | +6.0% | +16.5% | +1.8% | +0.8% | -0.7% | — | — | — | +33.4% |
| M1 | M2lag | TopN | Sharpe | Ann Return | Ann Vol | MaxDD | Calmar | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 1 | 15 | 0.20 | +4.0% | 19.7% | -40.0% | 0.10 | 56% |
| Month | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | #8 | #9 | #10 | #11 | #12 | #13 | #14 | #15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10 | UNG | IAUM | SGOL | GLD | GLDM | EPOL | IAU | ||||||||
| 2023-11 | BITO | SMH | FLBR | EWZ | KURE | DTCR | VPN | ITB | SOXX | IXN | EWT | TDIV | XLK | IYW | AIQ |
| 2023-12 | BKCH | DAPP | BITQ | FDIG | BLOK | ARKW | ARKF | ARKK | FINX | IAT | ARGT | BUZZ | WTAI | RING | KBWB |
| 2024-01 | XHE | QAT | IXJ | XPH | XHS | FXH | XLP | FSTA | IZRL | VDC | JETS | ||||
| 2024-02 | MJ | CNBS | ISRA | EVX | EWY | ICLN | VNM | DRIV | TUR | DEM | NTSE | ARKQ | DFEV | DGS | REM |
| 2024-03 | XES | RING | SILJ | USO | BNO | XOP | PALL | XLE | VDE | OIH | FENY | GDX | FXN | GOAU | GDXJ |
| 2024-04 | TUR | BCD | BCI | KBA | DBC | NLR | UAE | URA | |||||||
| 2024-05 | KWEB | FXI | BKCH | MCHI | DAPP | PGJ | CQQQ | CHIQ | GXC | FLCH | EWT | EMQQ | CXSE | EZA | EWH |
| 2024-06 | UNG | DFAR | SCHH | LMBS | |||||||||||
| 2024-07 | QCLN | PBW | ARKQ | KRE | PSCT | KBE | URNM | KBWY | IAT | ICLN | WTAI | FXL | XLY | ISRA | PBD |
| 2024-08 | GNOM | KURE | XPH | ARKG | IHAK | EWH | FXH | KBWP | NOBL | WCBR | FXG | FINX | IHI | FXR | |
| 2024-09 | THD | PALL | DBA | UAE | QAT | DFJ | GSJY | BBJP | IPAY | SLV | EWJ | SIVR | ARKW | MLPA | |
| 2024-10 | CNXT | CHIQ | KWEB | FXI | PGJ | CQQQ | CXSE | MCHI | FLCH | KGRN | KURE | GXC | EWH | REMX | KBA |
| 2024-11 | FBTC | IBIT | ARKB | BITQ | DAPP | BKCH | FDIG | BITO | KCCA | ARKG | IZRL | WTAI | |||
| 2024-12 | URA | URNM | XSD | PBW | GOEX | CARZ | PSI | QCLN | BATT | DRIV | SIVR | SLV | GDXJ | DXJ | SNSR |
| 2025-01 | USO | BNO | FXN | XES | OIH | IXC | |||||||||
| 2025-02 | ARKG | EPOL | RING | GOAU | ECH | GDX | XHS | GDXJ | TUR | EWD | GOEX | KBWD | VDC | FSTA | EWG |
| 2025-03 | EWO | KWEB | FXI | PGJ | MCHI | FDD | FLCH | GREK | CHIQ | EWP | GXC | CXSE | IDV | DTH | VNM |
| 2025-04 | XHS | ||||||||||||||
| 2025-05 | SIL | EZA | EWZ | SILJ | KWEB | FLBR | EWW | EMQQ | FBTC | CHIQ | IBIT | ARKB | MCHI | EWH | FLCH |
| 2025-06 | URA | DAPP | BITQ | URNM | BLOK | SMH | PBW | NLR | ARKW | SOXX | ARKX | XRT | BUZZ | ARKQ | IYW |
| 2025-07 | BKCH | ARKK | FDIG | ETHA | PSI | WTAI | IZRL | IRBO | XSD | FINX | KBWB | PTF | ARKG | AIRR | XSW |
| 2025-08 | CNBS | LIT | CQQQ | CXSE | KWEB | GXC | MCHI | FLCH | KGRN | PGJ | FXI | XPH | IBB | OIH | IDNA |
| 2025-09 | FHLC | VHT | IYH | XLV | XHS | IXJ | PTMC | ||||||||
| 2025-10 | KSA | CPER | KBWP | ||||||||||||
| 2025-11 | ARGT | DBA | |||||||||||||
| 2025-12 | CPER | UNG | XHE | XOP | KRE | IAT | FXZ | KBE | XSW | WCLD | EWL | XRT | FXD | SNSR | CIBR |
| 2026-01 | EPOL | TUR | EWG | UAE | XLB | ||||||||||
| 2026-02 | XHB | ITB | XLP | FSTA | VDC | MOO | SMDV | DES | FXG | WOOD | BNO | XSHD | MLPA | XSLV | XOP |
| 2026-03 | CNBS | ARKX | XLU | FTGC | BCI | FUTY | VPU | XLRE | BCD | ARKQ | USMV | SNSR | DBA | FPX | IZRL |
| 2026-04 | KSA | KGRN | ICLN | ARGT | EWS | QCLN | |||||||||
| 2026-05 | XSD | IRBO | WTAI | BITQ | BKCH | QTEC | SNSR | DAPP | BCD | FCLD | IXN | PBW | XLK | IYW | SPMO |
| 2026-06 | BUG | CIBR | IGV | FDIG | WCLD | ARKG | ARKW | XSW | QQEW | KCCA | ARKK | FDN | ARKF | NUMG | XHS |
| 2026-07 | JETS | IAT | GREK | IBB | KRE | KBE | KIE | DFNL | ITB | FXO | XHB | FNCL | VFH | KBWP | XLF |
| 2026-08 | KWEB | EMQQ | FXI | WOOD | INDA | RTH | EWD | IHI | BBAX | MCHI | EPI | COPX | MLPA | VNQI | EWA |
| 2026-09 | GOAU | RING | GOEX | GDX | SIL | GDXJ | SILJ | KURE | XLE | FENY | VDE | UNG | XOP | MOO | HAP |
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Universe: 0 NDX-100 stocks (Fiscal.ai) + 536 ETFs/Commodities/Crypto (FMP). Benchmark: QQQ (Invesco Nasdaq-100 ETF).