PROTOCOL BTC // bitcoin weekly TA

Trade plan used: Buy a small staged long in BTC or IBIT (spot first; no leverage unless portfolio regime is already risk-on).

1. What trade: Buy a small staged long in BTC or IBIT (spot first; no leverage unless portfolio regime is already risk-on).
2. When to put it on: On/after the weekly close that printed the MACD bullish cross (2026-07-26). Best if price is reclaiming or holding above the 20-week EMA; if still below a falling 20W EMA, wait for a weekly close back above it before sizing up.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $65,340 on/after 2026-07-26 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $71,874 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $60,113. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add only on a green weekly close that keeps MACD above signal, or on a shallow retest that holds the 20W EMA.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $60,113 (-8.0% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $71,874 (+10.0% from entry, ~1.3R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2026-07-26 the play was buy near $65,340, invalidation $60,113, target/exit $71,874. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $60,113 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy a small staged long in BTC or IBIT (spot first; no leverage unless portfolio regime is already risk-on).

1. What trade: Buy a small staged long in BTC or IBIT (spot first; no leverage unless portfolio regime is already risk-on).
2. When to put it on: On/after the weekly close that printed the MACD bullish cross (2026-04-19). Best if price is reclaiming or holding above the 20-week EMA; if still below a falling 20W EMA, wait for a weekly close back above it before sizing up.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $73,856 on/after 2026-04-19 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $81,242 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $67,948. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add only on a green weekly close that keeps MACD above signal, or on a shallow retest that holds the 20W EMA.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $67,948 (-8.0% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $81,242 (+10.0% from entry, ~1.3R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2026-04-19 the play was buy near $73,856, invalidation $67,948, target/exit $81,242. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $67,948 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the cup-and-handle pivot breakout: smaller staged long until confirmed.

1. What trade: Buy the cup-and-handle pivot breakout: smaller staged long until confirmed.
2. When to put it on: Enter on a weekly close above the pivot ($122,284). If only the handle is forming around 2025-09-07, wait for the breakout close rather than guessing the bottom of the handle.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $111,168 on/after 2025-09-07 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $122,284 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $98,286. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add only after the breakout holds for a full weekly close and the handle low stays intact.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $98,286 (-11.6% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $122,284 (+10.0% from entry, ~0.9R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2025-09-07 the play was buy near $111,168, invalidation $98,286, target/exit $122,284. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $98,286 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy strength on the flag breakout: staged long BTC/IBIT.

1. What trade: Buy strength on the flag breakout: staged long BTC/IBIT.
2. When to put it on: Prefer entry on a weekly close through flag resistance near $111,970, not mid-flag. The 2025-07-06 signal marks the setup window.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $109,232 on/after 2025-07-06 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $111,970 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $98,286. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add on a successful retest of broken flag resistance that holds as support.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $98,286 (-10.0% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $111,970 (+2.5% from entry, ~0.3R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2025-07-06 the play was buy near $109,232, invalidation $98,286, target/exit $111,970. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $98,286 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the pullback in an uptrend: staged long BTC/IBIT into the 20-week EMA zone.

1. What trade: Buy the pullback in an uptrend: staged long BTC/IBIT into the 20-week EMA zone.
2. When to put it on: When weekly price tags/holds the 20W EMA around the 2025-06-22 signal and the broader uptrend filter is still on (price and 20W EMA above the slower weekly average).
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $100,987 on/after 2025-06-22 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $111,086 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $96,648. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add on the first weekly close back above the 20W EMA after the touch, not while still slicing lower through it.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $96,648 (-4.3% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $111,086 (+10.0% from entry, ~2.3R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2025-06-22 the play was buy near $100,987, invalidation $96,648, target/exit $111,086. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $96,648 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the breakout above flat resistance: staged long BTC/IBIT.

1. What trade: Buy the breakout above flat resistance: staged long BTC/IBIT.
2. When to put it on: Enter on a weekly close above triangle resistance/target zone ($116,217), with expanding volume preferred. Treat 2025-06-01 as the alert date; do not front-run a failed poke.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $105,652 on/after 2025-06-01 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $116,217 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $97,200. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add on a retest of the breakout line that holds on a weekly close.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $97,200 (-8.0% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $116,217 (+10.0% from entry, ~1.2R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2025-06-01 the play was buy near $105,652, invalidation $97,200, target/exit $116,217. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $97,200 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy a small staged long in BTC or IBIT (spot first; no leverage unless portfolio regime is already risk-on).

1. What trade: Buy a small staged long in BTC or IBIT (spot first; no leverage unless portfolio regime is already risk-on).
2. When to put it on: On/after the weekly close that printed the MACD bullish cross (2025-05-11). Best if price is reclaiming or holding above the 20-week EMA; if still below a falling 20W EMA, wait for a weekly close back above it before sizing up.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $104,106 on/after 2025-05-11 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $114,517 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $95,778. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add only on a green weekly close that keeps MACD above signal, or on a shallow retest that holds the 20W EMA.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $95,778 (-8.0% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $114,517 (+10.0% from entry, ~1.3R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2025-05-11 the play was buy near $104,106, invalidation $95,778, target/exit $114,517. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $95,778 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the pullback in an uptrend: staged long BTC/IBIT into the 20-week EMA zone.

1. What trade: Buy the pullback in an uptrend: staged long BTC/IBIT into the 20-week EMA zone.
2. When to put it on: When weekly price tags/holds the 20W EMA around the 2025-04-27 signal and the broader uptrend filter is still on (price and 20W EMA above the slower weekly average).
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $93,755 on/after 2025-04-27 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $103,130 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $87,375. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add on the first weekly close back above the 20W EMA after the touch, not while still slicing lower through it.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $87,375 (-6.8% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $103,130 (+10.0% from entry, ~1.5R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2025-04-27 the play was buy near $93,755, invalidation $87,375, target/exit $103,130. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $87,375 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the breakout above flat resistance: staged long BTC/IBIT.

1. What trade: Buy the breakout above flat resistance: staged long BTC/IBIT.
2. When to put it on: Enter on a weekly close above triangle resistance/target zone ($100,487), with expanding volume preferred. Treat 2025-01-05 as the alert date; do not front-run a failed poke.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $98,315 on/after 2025-01-05 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $100,487 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $1. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add on a retest of the breakout line that holds on a weekly close.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $1 (-100.0% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $100,487 (+2.2% from entry, ~0.0R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2025-01-05 the play was buy near $98,315, invalidation $1, target/exit $100,487. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $1 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the breakout above flat resistance: staged long BTC/IBIT.

1. What trade: Buy the breakout above flat resistance: staged long BTC/IBIT.
2. When to put it on: Enter on a weekly close above triangle resistance/target zone ($75,615), with expanding volume preferred. Treat 2024-11-03 as the alert date; do not front-run a failed poke.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $68,741 on/after 2024-11-03 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $75,615 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $63,242. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add on a retest of the breakout line that holds on a weekly close.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $63,242 (-8.0% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $75,615 (+10.0% from entry, ~1.2R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2024-11-03 the play was buy near $68,741, invalidation $63,242, target/exit $75,615. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $63,242 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the pullback in an uptrend: staged long BTC/IBIT into the 20-week EMA zone.

1. What trade: Buy the pullback in an uptrend: staged long BTC/IBIT into the 20-week EMA zone.
2. When to put it on: When weekly price tags/holds the 20W EMA around the 2024-10-20 signal and the broader uptrend filter is still on (price and 20W EMA above the slower weekly average).
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $69,002 on/after 2024-10-20 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $75,902 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $62,280. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add on the first weekly close back above the 20W EMA after the touch, not while still slicing lower through it.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $62,280 (-9.7% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $75,902 (+10.0% from entry, ~1.0R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2024-10-20 the play was buy near $69,002, invalidation $62,280, target/exit $75,902. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $62,280 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy a small staged long in BTC or IBIT (spot first; no leverage unless portfolio regime is already risk-on).

1. What trade: Buy a small staged long in BTC or IBIT (spot first; no leverage unless portfolio regime is already risk-on).
2. When to put it on: On/after the weekly close that printed the MACD bullish cross (2024-10-20). Best if price is reclaiming or holding above the 20-week EMA; if still below a falling 20W EMA, wait for a weekly close back above it before sizing up.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $69,002 on/after 2024-10-20 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $75,902 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $63,482. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add only on a green weekly close that keeps MACD above signal, or on a shallow retest that holds the 20W EMA.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $63,482 (-8.0% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $75,902 (+10.0% from entry, ~1.2R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2024-10-20 the play was buy near $69,002, invalidation $63,482, target/exit $75,902. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $63,482 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the pullback in an uptrend: staged long BTC/IBIT into the 20-week EMA zone.

1. What trade: Buy the pullback in an uptrend: staged long BTC/IBIT into the 20-week EMA zone.
2. When to put it on: When weekly price tags/holds the 20W EMA around the 2024-05-05 signal and the broader uptrend filter is still on (price and 20W EMA above the slower weekly average).
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $64,031 on/after 2024-05-05 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $70,434 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $57,154. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add on the first weekly close back above the 20W EMA after the touch, not while still slicing lower through it.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $57,154 (-10.7% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $70,434 (+10.0% from entry, ~0.9R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2024-05-05 the play was buy near $64,031, invalidation $57,154, target/exit $70,434. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $57,154 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the cup-and-handle pivot breakout: smaller staged long until confirmed.

1. What trade: Buy the cup-and-handle pivot breakout: smaller staged long until confirmed.
2. When to put it on: Enter on a weekly close above the pivot ($70,434). If only the handle is forming around 2024-05-05, wait for the breakout close rather than guessing the bottom of the handle.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $64,031 on/after 2024-05-05 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $70,434 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $50,562. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add only after the breakout holds for a full weekly close and the handle low stays intact.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $50,562 (-21.0% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $70,434 (+10.0% from entry, ~0.5R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2024-05-05 the play was buy near $64,031, invalidation $50,562, target/exit $70,434. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $50,562 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the breakout above flat resistance: staged long BTC/IBIT.

1. What trade: Buy the breakout above flat resistance: staged long BTC/IBIT.
2. When to put it on: Enter on a weekly close above triangle resistance/target zone ($53,123), with expanding volume preferred. Treat 2024-02-11 as the alert date; do not front-run a failed poke.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $48,294 on/after 2024-02-11 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $53,123 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $44,430. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add on a retest of the breakout line that holds on a weekly close.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $44,430 (-8.0% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $53,123 (+10.0% from entry, ~1.2R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2024-02-11 the play was buy near $48,294, invalidation $44,430, target/exit $53,123. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $44,430 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the pullback in an uptrend: staged long BTC/IBIT into the 20-week EMA zone.

1. What trade: Buy the pullback in an uptrend: staged long BTC/IBIT into the 20-week EMA zone.
2. When to put it on: When weekly price tags/holds the 20W EMA around the 2024-01-28 signal and the broader uptrend filter is still on (price and 20W EMA above the slower weekly average).
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $42,036 on/after 2024-01-28 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $46,239 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $38,522. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add on the first weekly close back above the 20W EMA after the touch, not while still slicing lower through it.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $38,522 (-8.4% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $46,239 (+10.0% from entry, ~1.2R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2024-01-28 the play was buy near $42,036, invalidation $38,522, target/exit $46,239. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $38,522 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the cup-and-handle pivot breakout: smaller staged long until confirmed.

1. What trade: Buy the cup-and-handle pivot breakout: smaller staged long until confirmed.
2. When to put it on: Enter on a weekly close above the pivot ($45,976). If only the handle is forming around 2024-01-14, wait for the breakout close rather than guessing the bottom of the handle.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $41,796 on/after 2024-01-14 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $45,976 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $34,083. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add only after the breakout holds for a full weekly close and the handle low stays intact.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $34,083 (-18.5% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $45,976 (+10.0% from entry, ~0.5R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2024-01-14 the play was buy near $41,796, invalidation $34,083, target/exit $45,976. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $34,083 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the cup-and-handle pivot breakout: smaller staged long until confirmed.

1. What trade: Buy the cup-and-handle pivot breakout: smaller staged long until confirmed.
2. When to put it on: Enter on a weekly close above the pivot ($41,125). If only the handle is forming around 2023-11-19, wait for the breakout close rather than guessing the bottom of the handle.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $37,387 on/after 2023-11-19 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $41,125 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $24,930. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add only after the breakout holds for a full weekly close and the handle low stays intact.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $24,930 (-33.3% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $41,125 (+10.0% from entry, ~0.3R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2023-11-19 the play was buy near $37,387, invalidation $24,930, target/exit $41,125. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $24,930 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the neckline breakout: staged long BTC/IBIT after confirmation.

1. What trade: Buy the neckline breakout: staged long BTC/IBIT after confirmation.
2. When to put it on: Enter on a weekly close above the neckline/target ($40,760). Use 2023-11-12 as the pattern-alert date; require the close, not just a wick.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $37,055 on/after 2023-11-12 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $40,760 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $19,628. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add on a neckline retest that holds on a weekly close.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $19,628 (-47.0% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $40,760 (+10.0% from entry, ~0.2R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2023-11-12 the play was buy near $37,055, invalidation $19,628, target/exit $40,760. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $19,628 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy a small staged long in BTC or IBIT (spot first; no leverage unless portfolio regime is already risk-on).

1. What trade: Buy a small staged long in BTC or IBIT (spot first; no leverage unless portfolio regime is already risk-on).
2. When to put it on: On/after the weekly close that printed the MACD bullish cross (2023-10-29). Best if price is reclaiming or holding above the 20-week EMA; if still below a falling 20W EMA, wait for a weekly close back above it before sizing up.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $34,538 on/after 2023-10-29 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $37,992 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $31,775. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add only on a green weekly close that keeps MACD above signal, or on a shallow retest that holds the 20W EMA.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $31,775 (-8.0% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $37,992 (+10.0% from entry, ~1.3R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2023-10-29 the play was buy near $34,538, invalidation $31,775, target/exit $37,992. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $31,775 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy strength on the flag breakout: staged long BTC/IBIT.

1. What trade: Buy strength on the flag breakout: staged long BTC/IBIT.
2. When to put it on: Prefer entry on a weekly close through flag resistance near $31,815, not mid-flag. The 2023-10-22 signal marks the setup window.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $29,994 on/after 2023-10-22 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $31,815 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $24,930. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add on a successful retest of broken flag resistance that holds as support.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $24,930 (-16.9% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $31,815 (+6.1% from entry, ~0.4R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2023-10-22 the play was buy near $29,994, invalidation $24,930, target/exit $31,815. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $24,930 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the pullback in an uptrend: staged long BTC/IBIT into the 20-week EMA zone.

1. What trade: Buy the pullback in an uptrend: staged long BTC/IBIT into the 20-week EMA zone.
2. When to put it on: When weekly price tags/holds the 20W EMA around the 2023-10-22 signal and the broader uptrend filter is still on (price and 20W EMA above the slower weekly average).
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $29,994 on/after 2023-10-22 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $32,993 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $27,581. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add on the first weekly close back above the 20W EMA after the touch, not while still slicing lower through it.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $27,581 (-8.0% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $32,993 (+10.0% from entry, ~1.2R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2023-10-22 the play was buy near $29,994, invalidation $27,581, target/exit $32,993. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $27,581 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the neckline breakout: staged long BTC/IBIT after confirmation.

1. What trade: Buy the neckline breakout: staged long BTC/IBIT after confirmation.
2. When to put it on: Enter on a weekly close above the neckline/target ($29,188). Use 2023-09-17 as the pattern-alert date; require the close, not just a wick.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $26,534 on/after 2023-09-17 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $29,188 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $19,628. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add on a neckline retest that holds on a weekly close.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $19,628 (-26.0% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $29,188 (+10.0% from entry, ~0.4R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2023-09-17 the play was buy near $26,534, invalidation $19,628, target/exit $29,188. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $19,628 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the pullback in an uptrend: staged long BTC/IBIT into the 20-week EMA zone.

1. What trade: Buy the pullback in an uptrend: staged long BTC/IBIT into the 20-week EMA zone.
2. When to put it on: When weekly price tags/holds the 20W EMA around the 2023-06-18 signal and the broader uptrend filter is still on (price and 20W EMA above the slower weekly average).
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $26,336 on/after 2023-06-18 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $28,970 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $25,978. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add on the first weekly close back above the 20W EMA after the touch, not while still slicing lower through it.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $25,978 (-1.4% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $28,970 (+10.0% from entry, ~7.4R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2023-06-18 the play was buy near $26,336, invalidation $25,978, target/exit $28,970. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $25,978 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the neckline breakout: staged long BTC/IBIT after confirmation.

1. What trade: Buy the neckline breakout: staged long BTC/IBIT after confirmation.
2. When to put it on: Enter on a weekly close above the neckline/target ($30,894). Use 2023-05-28 as the pattern-alert date; require the close, not just a wick.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $28,086 on/after 2023-05-28 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $30,894 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $19,628. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add on a neckline retest that holds on a weekly close.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $19,628 (-30.1% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $30,894 (+10.0% from entry, ~0.3R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2023-05-28 the play was buy near $28,086, invalidation $19,628, target/exit $30,894. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $19,628 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the pullback in an uptrend: staged long BTC/IBIT into the 20-week EMA zone.

1. What trade: Buy the pullback in an uptrend: staged long BTC/IBIT into the 20-week EMA zone.
2. When to put it on: When weekly price tags/holds the 20W EMA around the 2023-04-23 signal and the broader uptrend filter is still on (price and 20W EMA above the slower weekly average).
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $27,591 on/after 2023-04-23 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $30,351 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $24,513. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add on the first weekly close back above the 20W EMA after the touch, not while still slicing lower through it.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $24,513 (-11.2% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $30,351 (+10.0% from entry, ~0.9R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2023-04-23 the play was buy near $27,591, invalidation $24,513, target/exit $30,351. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $24,513 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the neckline breakout: staged long BTC/IBIT after confirmation.

1. What trade: Buy the neckline breakout: staged long BTC/IBIT after confirmation.
2. When to put it on: Enter on a weekly close above the neckline/target ($31,019). Use 2023-04-02 as the pattern-alert date; require the close, not just a wick.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $28,199 on/after 2023-04-02 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $31,019 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $19,628. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add on a neckline retest that holds on a weekly close.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $19,628 (-30.4% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $31,019 (+10.0% from entry, ~0.3R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2023-04-02 the play was buy near $28,199, invalidation $19,628, target/exit $31,019. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $19,628 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the breakout above flat resistance: staged long BTC/IBIT.

1. What trade: Buy the breakout above flat resistance: staged long BTC/IBIT.
2. When to put it on: Enter on a weekly close above triangle resistance/target zone ($30,843), with expanding volume preferred. Treat 2023-03-19 as the alert date; do not front-run a failed poke.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $28,039 on/after 2023-03-19 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $30,843 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $25,796. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add on a retest of the breakout line that holds on a weekly close.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $25,796 (-8.0% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $30,843 (+10.0% from entry, ~1.3R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2023-03-19 the play was buy near $28,039, invalidation $25,796, target/exit $30,843. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $25,796 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the pullback in an uptrend: staged long BTC/IBIT into the 20-week EMA zone.

1. What trade: Buy the pullback in an uptrend: staged long BTC/IBIT into the 20-week EMA zone.
2. When to put it on: When weekly price tags/holds the 20W EMA around the 2021-10-17 signal and the broader uptrend filter is still on (price and 20W EMA above the slower weekly average).
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $61,554 on/after 2021-10-17 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $67,709 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $46,675. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add on the first weekly close back above the 20W EMA after the touch, not while still slicing lower through it.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $46,675 (-24.2% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $67,709 (+10.0% from entry, ~0.4R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2021-10-17 the play was buy near $61,554, invalidation $46,675, target/exit $67,709. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $46,675 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the cup-and-handle pivot breakout: smaller staged long until confirmed.

1. What trade: Buy the cup-and-handle pivot breakout: smaller staged long until confirmed.
2. When to put it on: Enter on a weekly close above the pivot ($63,294). If only the handle is forming around 2021-02-21, wait for the breakout close rather than guessing the bottom of the handle.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $57,540 on/after 2021-02-21 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $63,294 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $17,620. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add only after the breakout holds for a full weekly close and the handle low stays intact.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $17,620 (-69.4% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $63,294 (+10.0% from entry, ~0.1R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2021-02-21 the play was buy near $57,540, invalidation $17,620, target/exit $63,294. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $17,620 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the pullback in an uptrend: staged long BTC/IBIT into the 20-week EMA zone.

1. What trade: Buy the pullback in an uptrend: staged long BTC/IBIT into the 20-week EMA zone.
2. When to put it on: When weekly price tags/holds the 20W EMA around the 2020-11-01 signal and the broader uptrend filter is still on (price and 20W EMA above the slower weekly average).
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $13,737 on/after 2020-11-01 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $15,111 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $10,978. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add on the first weekly close back above the 20W EMA after the touch, not while still slicing lower through it.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $10,978 (-20.1% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $15,111 (+10.0% from entry, ~0.5R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2020-11-01 the play was buy near $13,737, invalidation $10,978, target/exit $15,111. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $10,978 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the breakout above flat resistance: staged long BTC/IBIT.

1. What trade: Buy the breakout above flat resistance: staged long BTC/IBIT.
2. When to put it on: Enter on a weekly close above triangle resistance/target zone ($14,334), with expanding volume preferred. Treat 2020-10-25 as the alert date; do not front-run a failed poke.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $13,031 on/after 2020-10-25 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $14,334 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $11,989. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add on a retest of the breakout line that holds on a weekly close.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $11,989 (-8.0% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $14,334 (+10.0% from entry, ~1.2R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2020-10-25 the play was buy near $13,031, invalidation $11,989, target/exit $14,334. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $11,989 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy a small staged long in BTC or IBIT (spot first; no leverage unless portfolio regime is already risk-on).

1. What trade: Buy a small staged long in BTC or IBIT (spot first; no leverage unless portfolio regime is already risk-on).
2. When to put it on: On/after the weekly close that printed the MACD bullish cross (2020-10-18). Best if price is reclaiming or holding above the 20-week EMA; if still below a falling 20W EMA, wait for a weekly close back above it before sizing up.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $11,483 on/after 2020-10-18 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $12,632 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $10,565. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add only on a green weekly close that keeps MACD above signal, or on a shallow retest that holds the 20W EMA.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $10,565 (-8.0% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $12,632 (+10.0% from entry, ~1.3R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2020-10-18 the play was buy near $11,483, invalidation $10,565, target/exit $12,632. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $10,565 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy strength on the flag breakout: staged long BTC/IBIT.

1. What trade: Buy strength on the flag breakout: staged long BTC/IBIT.
2. When to put it on: Prefer entry on a weekly close through flag resistance near $10,200, not mid-flag. The 2020-07-26 signal marks the setup window.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $9,905 on/after 2020-07-26 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $10,200 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $8,976. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add on a successful retest of broken flag resistance that holds as support.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $8,976 (-9.4% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $10,200 (+3.0% from entry, ~0.3R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2020-07-26 the play was buy near $9,905, invalidation $8,976, target/exit $10,200. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $8,976 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the breakout above flat resistance: staged long BTC/IBIT.

1. What trade: Buy the breakout above flat resistance: staged long BTC/IBIT.
2. When to put it on: Enter on a weekly close above triangle resistance/target zone ($10,896), with expanding volume preferred. Treat 2020-07-26 as the alert date; do not front-run a failed poke.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $9,905 on/after 2020-07-26 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $10,896 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $1. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add on a retest of the breakout line that holds on a weekly close.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $1 (-100.0% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $10,896 (+10.0% from entry, ~0.1R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2020-07-26 the play was buy near $9,905, invalidation $1, target/exit $10,896. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $1 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the pullback in an uptrend: staged long BTC/IBIT into the 20-week EMA zone.

1. What trade: Buy the pullback in an uptrend: staged long BTC/IBIT into the 20-week EMA zone.
2. When to put it on: When weekly price tags/holds the 20W EMA around the 2020-06-07 signal and the broader uptrend filter is still on (price and 20W EMA above the slower weekly average).
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $9,759 on/after 2020-06-07 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $10,735 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $8,404. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add on the first weekly close back above the 20W EMA after the touch, not while still slicing lower through it.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $8,404 (-13.9% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $10,735 (+10.0% from entry, ~0.7R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2020-06-07 the play was buy near $9,759, invalidation $8,404, target/exit $10,735. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $8,404 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy a small staged long in BTC or IBIT (spot first; no leverage unless portfolio regime is already risk-on).

1. What trade: Buy a small staged long in BTC or IBIT (spot first; no leverage unless portfolio regime is already risk-on).
2. When to put it on: On/after the weekly close that printed the MACD bullish cross (2020-05-03). Best if price is reclaiming or holding above the 20-week EMA; if still below a falling 20W EMA, wait for a weekly close back above it before sizing up.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $8,897 on/after 2020-05-03 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $9,787 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $8,186. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add only on a green weekly close that keeps MACD above signal, or on a shallow retest that holds the 20W EMA.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $8,186 (-8.0% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $9,787 (+10.0% from entry, ~1.3R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2020-05-03 the play was buy near $8,897, invalidation $8,186, target/exit $9,787. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $8,186 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy a small staged long in BTC or IBIT (spot first; no leverage unless portfolio regime is already risk-on).

1. What trade: Buy a small staged long in BTC or IBIT (spot first; no leverage unless portfolio regime is already risk-on).
2. When to put it on: On/after the weekly close that printed the MACD bullish cross (2020-02-02). Best if price is reclaiming or holding above the 20-week EMA; if still below a falling 20W EMA, wait for a weekly close back above it before sizing up.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $9,344 on/after 2020-02-02 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $10,279 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $8,597. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add only on a green weekly close that keeps MACD above signal, or on a shallow retest that holds the 20W EMA.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $8,597 (-8.0% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $10,279 (+10.0% from entry, ~1.3R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2020-02-02 the play was buy near $9,344, invalidation $8,597, target/exit $10,279. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $8,597 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy the pullback in an uptrend: staged long BTC/IBIT into the 20-week EMA zone.

1. What trade: Buy the pullback in an uptrend: staged long BTC/IBIT into the 20-week EMA zone.
2. When to put it on: When weekly price tags/holds the 20W EMA around the 2019-05-19 signal and the broader uptrend filter is still on (price and 20W EMA above the slower weekly average).
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $8,198 on/after 2019-05-19 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $9,017 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $5,235. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add on the first weekly close back above the 20W EMA after the touch, not while still slicing lower through it.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $5,235 (-36.1% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $9,017 (+10.0% from entry, ~0.3R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2019-05-19 the play was buy near $8,198, invalidation $5,235, target/exit $9,017. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $5,235 meant exit/no add.

Trade plan used: Buy a small staged long in BTC or IBIT (spot first; no leverage unless portfolio regime is already risk-on).

1. What trade: Buy a small staged long in BTC or IBIT (spot first; no leverage unless portfolio regime is already risk-on).
2. When to put it on: On/after the weekly close that printed the MACD bullish cross (2019-02-17). Best if price is reclaiming or holding above the 20-week EMA; if still below a falling 20W EMA, wait for a weekly close back above it before sizing up.
3. Entry instructions: ENTRY: buy near $3,674 on/after 2019-02-17 using a weekly close confirmation for the pattern. Do not market-chase far above entry without a plan; if price is already >3–4% through entry, wait for a hold/retest.
4. Exit instructions: EXIT WIN: scale out into $4,041 (first tranche at target; trail remainder above rising 20W EMA if trend continues). EXIT LOSS: flatten or cut adds on a weekly close under invalidation $3,380. TIME EXIT: if neither target nor stop by ~13 weeks, reassess — reduce if structure weakens.
5. When to add: Add only on a green weekly close that keeps MACD above signal, or on a shallow retest that holds the 20W EMA.
6. Risk / targets: Hard invalidation / exit: weekly close below $3,380 (-8.0% from entry). First take-profit / reduce zone: $4,041 (+10.0% from entry, ~1.2R). Horizon ~13 weeks unless stopped/target hit sooner.
7. Size: Size: starter 25–40% of intended BTC sleeve add; leave room to add once. Prefer spot/IBIT. Options/leverage only if portfolio regime already allows heavier risk/calls.
8. Action: HISTORICAL PLAN (not a live order): on 2019-02-17 the play was buy near $3,674, invalidation $3,380, target/exit $4,041. Outcome: WIN.
9. If it fails: At the time, a weekly close under $3,380 meant exit/no add.