What the strategy would hold if rebalanced on the latest data (as of 2026-10-30 close — trailing 30D bars, so signals recompute every daily run and names can add/drop each session). Official above stays on calendar month-end locks for tradable consistency.
| # | Ticker | Company Name | Class | M1 | M2 | M2/M1 (≥0.50) | Score | Weight | Trail DD | Stop | 12M Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ACN | Accenture plc | SP500 | +88.02% | +82.49% | 0.94 ✓ | 30.0% | -0.2% | ✓ OK | ||
| 2 | USO | United States Oil Fund, LP | COMMODITY | +62.37% | +68.74% | 1.10 ✓ | 12.7% | -0.4% | ✓ OK | ||
| 3 | BF-B | BROWN FORMAN CORP | SP500 | +9.75% | +88.43% | 9.07 ✓ | 9.7% | -4.9% | ✓ OK | ||
| 4 | CRWD | CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | NASDAQ | +29.10% | +78.40% | 2.69 ✓ | 9.6% | +nan% | ✓ OK | ||
| 5 | APA | APA Corp | SP500 | +63.23% | +55.70% | 0.88 ✓ | 7.6% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 6 | HAS | HASBRO, INC. | SP500 | +48.58% | +49.81% | 1.03 ✓ | 4.5% | -0.4% | ✓ OK | ||
| 7 | PTC | PTC INC. | SP500 | +57.00% | +42.93% | 0.75 ✓ | 4.0% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 8 | CCL | Carnival Corp Ltd. | SP500 | +3.30% | +66.21% | 20.06 ✓ | 3.5% | -0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 9 | SWKS | SKYWORKS SOLUTIONS, INC. | SP500 | +39.99% | +43.44% | 1.09 ✓ | 2.9% | +nan% | ✓ OK | ||
| 10 | COP | CONOCOPHILLIPS | SP500 | +47.07% | +39.52% | 0.84 ✓ | 2.9% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 11 | DOW | DOW INC. | SP500 | +25.23% | +49.47% | 1.96 ✓ | 2.8% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 12 | CCI | CROWN CASTLE INC. | SP500 | +15.78% | +53.72% | 3.40 ✓ | 2.7% | -0.2% | ✓ OK | ||
| 13 | CTSH | COGNIZANT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS CORP | NASDAQ | +55.06% | +31.89% | 0.58 ✓ | 2.5% | -11.7% | ✓ OK | ||
| 14 | ULTA | Ulta Beauty, Inc. | SP500 | +38.82% | +37.85% | 0.98 ✓ | 2.3% | -1.2% | ✓ OK | ||
| 15 | LYB | LyondellBasell Industries N.V. | SP500 | +28.64% | +41.85% | 1.46 ✓ | 2.2% | +nan% | ✓ OK |
HELD = in both | ▲ NEW = would enter if rebalanced today | ▼ WOULD DROP = in official but no longer in the top 15.
| Ticker | Status | Official Wt | Would-Be Wt | Δ Weight | Official # | Would-Be # |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRNA | ▼ WOULD DROP | 30.0% | — | -30.0% | 1 | — |
| VEEV | ▼ WOULD DROP | 18.1% | — | -18.1% | 2 | — |
| VLO | ▼ WOULD DROP | 8.6% | — | -8.6% | 3 | — |
| ZS | ▼ WOULD DROP | 7.1% | — | -7.1% | 4 | — |
| PSX | ▼ WOULD DROP | 5.9% | — | -5.9% | 5 | — |
| PLTR | ▼ WOULD DROP | 4.6% | — | -4.6% | 6 | — |
| TMO | ▼ WOULD DROP | 3.5% | — | -3.5% | 7 | — |
| REGN | ▼ WOULD DROP | 3.2% | — | -3.2% | 8 | — |
| UHS | ▼ WOULD DROP | 3.0% | — | -3.0% | 9 | — |
| HCA | ▼ WOULD DROP | 2.9% | — | -2.9% | 10 | — |
| APA | HELD | 2.8% | 7.6% | +4.8% | 11 | 5 |
| CRM | ▼ WOULD DROP | 2.7% | — | -2.7% | 12 | — |
| DE | ▼ WOULD DROP | 2.6% | — | -2.6% | 13 | — |
| RMD | ▼ WOULD DROP | 2.5% | — | -2.5% | 14 | — |
| MTD | ▼ WOULD DROP | 2.5% | — | -2.5% | 15 | — |
| ACN | ▲ NEW | — | 30.0% | +30.0% | — | 1 |
| USO | ▲ NEW | — | 12.7% | +12.7% | — | 2 |
| BF-B | ▲ NEW | — | 9.7% | +9.7% | — | 3 |
| CRWD | ▲ NEW | — | 9.6% | +9.6% | — | 4 |
| HAS | ▲ NEW | — | 4.5% | +4.5% | — | 6 |
| PTC | ▲ NEW | — | 4.0% | +4.0% | — | 7 |
| CCL | ▲ NEW | — | 3.5% | +3.5% | — | 8 |
| SWKS | ▲ NEW | — | 2.9% | +2.9% | — | 9 |
| COP | ▲ NEW | — | 2.9% | +2.9% | — | 10 |
| DOW | ▲ NEW | — | 2.8% | +2.8% | — | 11 |
| CCI | ▲ NEW | — | 2.7% | +2.7% | — | 12 |
| CTSH | ▲ NEW | — | 2.5% | +2.5% | — | 13 |
| ULTA | ▲ NEW | — | 2.3% | +2.3% | — | 14 |
| LYB | ▲ NEW | — | 2.2% | +2.2% | — | 15 |
Set from the 2026-09-30 close (last trading day of the prior month) — the same rebalance timing the backtest uses. Locked 2026-10-01; mid-month reruns never change this allocation. Top 15 by composite momentum score (M1 + 2×M2), after eliminating decelerating names (M2 > 0) and stale accelerations (M2/M1 ≥ 0.50) — the same filters used in the backtest. Score-weighted with per-position and class caps.
Class allocation: NASDAQ: 40.3% | SP500: 59.7%
| # | Ticker | Company Name | Class | M1 | M2 | M2/M1 (≥0.50) | Score | Weight | Trail DD | Stop | 12M Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MRNA | Moderna, Inc. | NASDAQ | +308.07% | +300.16% | 0.97 ✓ | 30.0% | +nan% | ✓ OK | ||
| 2 | VEEV | VEEVA SYSTEMS INC | SP500 | +63.73% | +47.72% | 0.75 ✓ | 18.1% | +nan% | ✓ OK | ||
| 3 | VLO | VALERO ENERGY CORP/TX | SP500 | +58.32% | +31.69% | 0.54 ✓ | 8.6% | +nan% | ✓ OK | ||
| 4 | ZS | Zscaler, Inc. | NASDAQ | +42.72% | +34.94% | 0.82 ✓ | 7.1% | +nan% | ✓ OK | ||
| 5 | PSX | Phillips 66 | SP500 | +45.16% | +28.97% | 0.64 ✓ | 5.9% | +nan% | ✓ OK | ||
| 6 | PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | SP500 | +19.49% | +35.36% | 1.81 ✓ | 4.6% | +nan% | ✓ OK | ||
| 7 | TMO | THERMO FISHER SCIENTIFIC INC. | SP500 | +37.06% | +20.22% | 0.55 ✓ | 3.5% | +nan% | ✓ OK | ||
| 8 | REGN | REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. | NASDAQ | +23.34% | +24.64% | 1.06 ✓ | 3.2% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 9 | UHS | UNIVERSAL HEALTH SERVICES INC | SP500 | +19.27% | +25.15% | 1.31 ✓ | 3.0% | +nan% | ✓ OK | ||
| 10 | HCA | HCA Healthcare, Inc. | SP500 | +12.73% | +27.66% | 2.17 ✓ | 2.9% | +nan% | ✓ OK | ||
| 11 | APA | APA Corp | SP500 | +14.03% | +26.09% | 1.86 ✓ | 2.8% | +0.0% | ✓ OK | ||
| 12 | CRM | Salesforce, Inc. | SP500 | +20.13% | +21.55% | 1.07 ✓ | 2.7% | +nan% | ✓ OK | ||
| 13 | DE | DEERE & CO | SP500 | +23.86% | +18.65% | 0.78 ✓ | 2.6% | +nan% | ✓ OK | ||
| 14 | RMD | RESMED INC | SP500 | +16.02% | +22.03% | 1.38 ✓ | 2.5% | +nan% | ✓ OK | ||
| 15 | MTD | METTLER TOLEDO INTERNATIONAL INC/ | SP500 | +27.98% | +15.69% | 0.56 ✓ | 2.5% | +nan% | ✓ OK |
Primary benchmark: QQQ (Invesco Nasdaq-100 ETF). This is what most investors compare against.
| Metric | Strategy | QQQ | EW NDX-100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Return | +1493.8% | +152.4% | +134.0% |
| Ann. Return | +89.4% | +23.8% | +21.7% |
| Ann. Volatility | 43.9% | 19.8% | 17.4% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.04 | 1.21 | 1.25 |
| Calmar Ratio | 6.04 | 1.56 | 1.85 |
| Max Drawdown | -14.8% | -15.2% | -11.7% |
| Win Rate | 69.2% | 63.5% | 63.5% |
| Best Month | +40.9% | +15.7% | +12.4% |
| Worst Month | -14.8% | -10.5% | -8.9% |
| Months | 52 | 52 | 52 |
Pinned production recipe M1=4 / lag=2 / Top 15 on rolling 24-month train / 6-month test windows. Folds do not retune windows.
Pinned M1=4 / lag=2 / Top 15 on unseen 6-month windows. Folds do not retune.
| Ann. Return | +118.3% |
| Sharpe | 2.45 |
| Max DD | -14.8% |
| Win Rate | 73% |
| Universe | 95 NDX + 415 S&P500 stocks + 27 ETFs |
| M1 Lookback | 4 months |
| M2 Lag | 2 month(s) |
| Holdings | Top 15 |
| Sizing | Score-weighted (softmax) |
| Position Cap | 30% max per ticker |
| ETF Cap | 80% total ETFs |
| Commodity Cap | 30% total commodities |
| Crypto Cap | 20% total crypto |
| Trailing Stop | 25% from peak |
| Benchmark | QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) |
| Fold | Train End | Test End | Pinned M1 | Pinned M2 | Pinned N | OOS Sharpe | OOS Ann Ret | OOS MaxDD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 2023-12 | 2024-06 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 2.13 | +113.1% | -8.3% |
| #2 | 2024-06 | 2024-12 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 1.28 | +81.3% | -13.1% |
| #3 | 2024-12 | 2025-06 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 1.65 | +73.7% | -11.9% |
| #4 | 2025-06 | 2025-12 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 3.47 | +183.5% | -14.8% |
| #5 | 2025-12 | 2026-06 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 3.90 | +160.7% | -9.0% |
Trailing 12-month return each month — smooths single-month noise and shows whether alpha is growing or compressing.
Each cell = strategy return for that month. Green = positive, red = negative. Full-year column on right.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Full Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | — | — | — | — | — | — | +6.0% | -2.9% | -10.6% | +10.1% | +5.8% | -2.9% | +4.0% |
| 2023 | +9.8% | -0.4% | +11.4% | -4.5% | +18.8% | +6.3% | +40.0% | +0.0% | -7.5% | -2.8% | +3.4% | +4.3% | +99.4% |
| 2024 | -9.4% | +29.7% | +12.4% | -8.3% | +17.1% | +2.9% | -1.5% | +0.8% | +3.4% | +7.1% | +40.9% | -13.1% | +96.5% |
| 2025 | +26.8% | -7.0% | -5.3% | +1.3% | +2.3% | +13.9% | +13.7% | -14.8% | +22.3% | +28.1% | +7.7% | +3.0% | +121.9% |
| 2026 | +12.0% | +9.9% | -9.0% | +1.8% | +26.7% | +11.9% | -6.8% | +0.6% | +5.0% | +10.8% | — | — | +76.2% |
| M1 | M2lag | TopN | Sharpe | Ann Return | Ann Vol | MaxDD | Calmar | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | 15 | 1.62 | +42.7% | 26.4% | -13.8% | 3.11 | 63% |
| Month | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | #8 | #9 | #10 | #11 | #12 | #13 | #14 | #15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11 | CRWD | ANET | MELI | CMS | GDDY | BITO | PGR | FICO | IT | AXON | CBOE | ALL | SNPS | WTW | SBAC |
| 2023-12 | COIN | XYZ | BITO | PODD | EXPE | AMD | CMS | GDDY | NCLH | EXR | COF | COHR | DXCM | RCL | CRWD |
| 2024-01 | SMCI | XYZ | COF | COHR | AMD | COIN | TPR | ASML | RMD | BG | BLDR | NFLX | NVDA | PODD | AVGO |
| 2024-02 | SMCI | CVNA | NVDA | COF | COHR | ALGN | XYZ | BG | BLDR | AMD | APP | HOOD | TPR | UBER | DVA |
| 2024-03 | SMCI | CVNA | HOOD | SMR | APP | ARM | VST | NVDA | ALGN | EME | OKTA | WSM | SATS | FIX | CEG |
| 2024-04 | SMR | SCCO | ACGL | FLEX | FANG | TPL | EXE | XOM | USO | DVN | EOG | VLO | COPX | KR | TKO |
| 2024-05 | SMR | FSLR | SILJ | SLV | PDD | FLEX | TER | NEE | NEM | NTAP | DD | AES | BF-B | PEG | HPQ |
| 2024-06 | SMR | FSLR | HPE | TER | SATS | PODD | NEM | SILJ | NTAP | TPL | CHRW | HUM | MMM | VTR | HPQ |
| 2024-07 | CHTR | TSLA | ADBE | AAPL | TYL | LITE | FICO | PANW | FOX | VTR | AMGN | UNH | MTCH | RVTY | PODD |
| 2024-08 | GL | EFX | PLTR | FICO | ERIE | MELI | IRM | DHI | PLD | CIEN | CHTR | CBRE | MSCI | HWM | CHRW |
| 2024-09 | PLTR | APP | COF | COHR | AXON | DASH | ERIE | GL | FTNT | ADSK | LITE | ORCL | EXPE | BMY | ILMN |
| 2024-10 | APP | UAL | GEV | DASH | NCLH | SOLV | VST | ETR | VRT | AXON | PYPL | ILMN | DAL | SATS | BMY |
| 2024-11 | APP | SMR | UAL | PLTR | VST | AXON | HOOD | VRT | TPL | CRWD | IBKR | BITO | TPR | DAL | TEAM |
| 2024-12 | APP | NNE | PLTR | HOOD | TSLA | TPR | COIN | LULU | BITO | TEAM | WSM | AVGO | CRWD | EQT | DXCM |
| 2025-01 | OKTA | LULU | WSM | BA | AVGO | DLTR | GOOGL | GOOG | BX | AMZN | MCK | BKR | USO | ARM | GFS |
| 2025-02 | SMCI | CVS | HWM | MCK | VRSN | FOX | OKTA | APTV | AZN | LLY | HUM | MMM | GE | AJG | RSG |
| 2025-03 | PDD | NEM | VRSN | SMCI | GDX | MPWR | WPM | ELV | HII | CVS | KO | ABBV | MDLZ | HCA | AMT |
| 2025-04 | WPM | NEM | GDX | CVS | SILJ | MELI | PM | MOS | UBER | ED | VRTX | AMT | HII | CBOE | HCA |
| 2025-05 | SMR | NRG | CVNA | PLTR | CCJ | ZS | SMCI | MELI | APH | STX | JCI | FIX | GEV | TT | URA |
| 2025-06 | SMR | CCJ | COIN | HOOD | URA | AMD | LITE | AXON | FIX | VRT | PWR | AVGO | GEV | VST | URNM |
| 2025-07 | SMR | COIN | HOOD | FIX | VRT | GEV | WDC | LITE | TTD | ORCL | VST | COF | COHR | ANET | AMD |
| 2025-08 | SATS | LITE | APP | TER | SNDK | IVZ | WDC | UAL | NCLH | DAL | ANET | LVS | GNRC | ALB | APA |
| 2025-09 | SATS | SNDK | WBD | INTC | SILJ | MU | TER | UNH | ALB | APA | LRCX | PSKY | GDX | NEM | PDD |
| 2025-10 | SNDK | CIEN | WBD | INTC | SCCO | TSLA | TMO | REGN | UNH | AAPL | ASML | LLY | AMAT | HAL | STLD |
| 2025-11 | SNDK | CNC | ALB | WAT | LLY | UHS | BIIB | CAH | HCA | C | ALGN | FICO | REGN | ISRG | ELV |
| 2025-12 | COF | COHR | CNC | SLV | AMAT | LLY | LUV | C | CAH | ALGN | IT | WAT | MRNA | JKHY | COO |
| 2026-01 | MRNA | FCX | LUV | HII | JBHT | SLB | CCJ | MCHP | CRL | EL | ODFL | DECK | ON | STZ | DLTR |
| 2026-02 | MRNA | TPL | WPM | FCX | DECK | KEYS | GNRC | ENPH | GLW | ADI | TRGP | LUV | GEV | KVUE | DVA |
| 2026-03 | USO | LYB | APA | CCI | DOW | OXY | TPL | DD | GLW | COP | DVA | DELL | VLO | EOG | GEV |
| 2026-04 | INTC | ARM | STX | USO | MRVL | VRT | AMD | DELL | MPWR | GNRC | FIX | ON | GFS | LYB | PWR |
| 2026-05 | DELL | ARM | MRVL | INTC | FLEX | AMD | DDOG | MU | HPE | STX | NTAP | ON | QCOM | CRWD | SMCI |
| 2026-06 | MRVL | CBOE | DELL | AMD | DDOG | PANW | CASY | MU | FLEX | HUM | CRWD | BR | CMI | OKTA | HPE |
| 2026-07 | CBOE | CASY | BR | CMI | CINF | CI | CNC | BAX | ILMN | TEAM | IQV | BG | TECH | DASH | CRL |
| 2026-08 | MRNA | TEAM | BR | VEEV | NOW | WDAY | IQV | CRM | DXCM | CRL | GEN | EL | CTSH | ILMN | ZS |
| 2026-09 | MRNA | VEEV | VLO | ZS | PSX | PLTR | TMO | REGN | UHS | HCA | APA | CRM | DE | RMD | MTD |
| 2026-10 | ACN | USO | PTC | BF-B | APA | IT | CTSH | HAS | COP | DOW | CCL | CCI | LDOS | ULTA | REGN |
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Universe: 95 NDX-100 stocks (Fiscal.ai) + 27 ETFs/Commodities/Crypto (FMP). Benchmark: QQQ (Invesco Nasdaq-100 ETF).